Why Cheshire Covid experts have 'cause for concern'

That will feel like a marked difference as more social visits are permitted, and lighter evenings will also provide more opportunity to get outdoors.

However, in a week in which the UK stood silent to reflect the first anniversary of lockdown one, it is perhaps prudent to understand where Cheshire has come from in recent weeks in terms of its fightback — and what it means for the future.

That’s because, on the eve of the end of lockdown, leaders are concerned over another rise in infection rates.

What’s happening with infection rates?

In short, they’re not falling, having plateaued for a few weeks.

In Cheshire West, the situation is actually a bit more concerning than just progress slowing down — the seven-day rolling average is currently 70.5 cases per 100,000 residents — it was 59.2 nine days earlier.

In Cheshire East, it’s 53.1, which although is not an increase from any point over the last fortnight, it’s also not a fall, as the average has jumped around the 50-something range.

“I think it is very clear now that we are reaching a point where that reduction in the levels of infection in our communities is levelling off,” said CWAC chief executive Andrew Lewis.

The number of hospital patients has fallen. Data: NHS England

He added in a statement to the council’s Covid-19 outbreak board: “This is a cause for concern. We have been stuck at a level of 60 per 100,000 now for about three or four weeks.

“I think this was discussed at the last meeting [on March 10] and since then we have carried on with the similar level of community infection as measured by the number of positive tests.”

Mr Lewis pointed to the reopening of schools, and associated increase in testing, as one reason as to why the rates are climbing — but he said the main driver was a continuation of workplace outbreaks.

That view is supported by Ian Ashworth, CWAC’s director of public health, who went on to say that his teams ‘have seen a small uptick in the number of people getting tests’ and ‘a small increase’ in positivity rates — which still remain ‘below three per cent’.

Positivity rates are the percentage of tests which come back with a positive Covid result — and a rise in this figure is associated with a high degree of community transmission.

What about the vaccine?

There is more good news here, as progress continues to be made with 87.3 per cent of the over-50 population in Cheshire having one dose as of March 21.

How each area in Cheshire and Merseyside is doing with the roll out. Data: NHS England

Reflecting on the work, NHS Cheshire CCG’s — the body running the roll-out regionally — Clare Watson said: “We can be confident and pleased with the progress we are making with the vaccine programme. Across Cheshire, 90 per cent of over-65s have had their first dose.

 “There are appointments out there but they are filling up so if you are in those groups please go and get your vaccination done.”

There was also reassurance from Ms Watson that the county remained on track to jab the top nine priority groups by the middle of April.

“Despite the publicity around vaccine supply that we are seeing in the national press, Cheshire is still on track to offer the vaccine to all patients in cohorts 1-9 by April 15.

“We are beginning to plan for cohorts 10-12 and we will be able to share more information about that at a later date.

“That is after April 15 — we are on track on the planning and modelling in terms of that.”

The proportion of residents in Cheshire with one dose by age. Data: NHS England

Ms Watson’s comments will come as some comfort to those in groups 10-12 who are worried if their appointments will have to be rescheduled due to a lack of supply — but it’s important to remember that ‘planning’ is not the same ‘carrying on’ — so the jabbing pace could be slowed down.

For the moment, much of the supply row between Britain and the EU remains a war of words and does not appear to be taking effect on the ground in our area.

Should we be worried?

It was always likely that the increase in schools testing would lead to more infections being recorded, so a small rise in the averages is understandable.

What is concerning is the stubbornness of transmission rates particularly in CWAC, which has been attributed to workplace outbreaks.

Council officials have been very keen to stress they are working with businesses on compliance in order to protect the wider public — but the question now is if these rates are low enough, and vaccine coverage is widespread enough, to sustain more social mixing as the UK unlocks.

That is a question which we will likely only know the answer to by the summer at the earliest.