Covid: Cheshire experts optimistic of hitting roadmap dates

This week has also seen a raft of positive news in the county’s Covid-19 fightback — touching on vaccines, infection rates, and hospital cases — leading two regional experts to hold a ‘glass half-full’ outlook on the easing of lockdown.

So, with that in mind, this Local Democracy Reporting Service Weekend Feature will take a look at where that optimism comes from.

The here and now: cases and hospital admissions

Wednesday (March 10) saw perhaps the strongest praise of 2021 thus far heaped on residents for following the lockdown rules — producing a 90 per cent fall in both Cheshire East’s and Cheshire West and Chester’s rolling seven-day infection rates from their early January peaks.

Indeed, CEC’s rate as of March 7 is 64.3 cases per 100,000 people, a fall of 23.1 per cent from the previous week. CWAC has seen a bigger fall — 32.7 per cent — to 60.6.

Ian Ashworth, CWAC’s Director of Public Health, called that fall ‘fantastic’.

He told the council’s Covid-19 outbreak board: We have seen a 30 per cent reduction in the previous week with infection rates which is fantastic — it’s great to see that.

“The rate has not been as low as this since September 24. It is really good and we want it to come down even moreso.

“One of the challenges why it has not gone so low [is that] we are seeing the 30-39 [age group] with high infection rates. That is because they are going to work and we have a population that cannot work from home, and having done some deep dives we have seen that workplace outbreaks have been a factor and that brings it to households as well.

“They also have not had the vaccine, generally.”

A similar size drop in percentage terms has also been seen in the borough’s hospitals.

Data: NHS England

Across the Mid Cheshire, East Cheshire, and Countess of Chester Trusts, NHS England data to March 9 shows that 102 patients were being cared for — a fall of nearly 25 per cent compared to a week before.

On March 2, the trusts were caring for 135 people, and three weeks before that the figure was 345 — meaning admissions have fallen by 70 per cent in a month.

Vaccine chiefs ‘confident’ about future, progress continues

A refreshing difference about 2021 compared to last year has been the promise of a vaccine being translated into tangible protection for millions of Britons.

In Cheshire and Merseyside, the roll-out continues at pace. This week, four per cent of adults alone had their first jabs — taking the overall first-dose proportion to 46 per cent.

The NHS England data also revealed that, despite seeing its vaccine supply ‘throttled back’ and subsequently re-increased, Cheshire has continued to maintain similar levels of progress in vaccination.

This week’s figure of 46 per cent represents a rise of four per cent from a week earlier — which follows a five percent rise from the week before that.

Additionally, 91.3 per cent of all over-60s have received their first inoculation.

Which age bands have the most coverage in the region. Data: NHS England

All this has led to confidence that local vaccinators will hit the government target of immunising everyone aged 50 and over, and those with underlying health conditions, by April 15.

NHS Cheshire Clinical Commissioning Group Accountable Officer Clare Watson said: “We are on track in terms of remaining national targets. 

“April 15 is not that far ahead but we are confident of hitting that target and we have been working to break down those patients that have not been vaccinated by primary care networks, so they can provide assurance to the CCG they are targeting and working with those hard to reach patients.

“We are now in cohort 8. That is the last but one before the April deadline. It’s really excellent performance for all primary care networks with all cohorts.”

Will we stick to the roadmap dates?

That was a key question asked on Wednesday to CWAC’s outbreak board — and after a couple of seconds of silence, both Ms Watson and Mr Ashworth provided their views.

In short, they are both positive that the dates can be met — provided residents follow the guidance in place at the time.

Ian Ashworth said: “I am forever polishing my crystal ball. I am glass-half-full at the moment — we have gone through a challenging time and people need to see the benefits of getting their vaccine.

“The vaccine is going to stop people being severely unwell so it is about protecting the NHS. I am really hopeful we have all these wider measures in place that we are acting on.

“There is going to be cases we pick up but there is a lot more testing going on. We all want to see our business and economy get back in work but done in a really safe way.

“One challenge is that we are still seeing workplace outbreaks. It is only by a combination of everything we can stick to the roadmap.”

His comments were followed by Clare Watson, who added: “I am going to take the half-full approach too. I think it is about making sure every step we keep doing everything we are asked to.

“The vaccination is part of it but there are a lot of other social measures we all need to take. Even if you have had your vaccination, it is still national lockdown.

“It’s really important we follow those every step of the way.”

Stick to the rules, get your vaccine, and by summer restrictions will be behind us. It’s a very simple plan on paper, but relies on a huge amount of effort from all sections of society to make it work.