Cheshire at Covid crossroads as infection rates flatten

That’s because although the vaccine roll-out continues to go well, infection rates are beginning to plateau in Cheshire — despite lockdown restrictions well-established in tackling transmission.

So is Cheshire in for another potential period of hardship?

What are case numbers doing?

It would be unfair to call current trends worrying — both Cheshire East and Cheshire West and Chester boroughs have a downward trend overall.

That being said, those decreases have slowed in recent days — with CEC’s rate hovering around 190-199 cases per 100,000 mark for a few days now, and CWAC’s has yo-yoed in the 265-285 range.

And, such is the way that the English average has fallen, it means that CWAC is now worse-than-mean with its case rate.

England’s average is 257.6, with the UK’s being 240.2.

Commenting on the figures, Cheshire East Council leader Sam Corcoran said: “In the last few days, [we have had] around 100 new cases a day, and it has not fallen further — which is disturbing.

“Please take care not to spread Covid-19, there are currently outbreaks in 27 care homes in Cheshire East.

“While the vaccination programme is going very well, please remember that the vaccines are not effective until a fortnight after the first dose, and not fully effective until a week after the second dose.”

While it may seem like case numbers not falling as fast as previous is a small issue, the implications can be big.

Reflecting new cases, Cheshire’s hospitals have also seen falls in the number of Covid admissions — but not as sharply as hoped.

At The Countess of Chester, which at one point last month was the busiest in the North West for Covid, and the latest data says it had 153 coronavirus patients on February 2.

That’s far below the peak of 290 on January 21, but it still places a huge burden on staff.

In Mid Cheshire, 174 patients are in its hospitals with the virus, and 114 are in East Cheshire facilities.

Covid admissions from August to September. Data: NHS England up to February 2

How well is the vaccine programme going?

Very well, in fact. Data from NHS England released this week found that nearly nine in 10 of Cheshire and Merseyside’s over-75 population received their first dose of a vaccine by the end of last month.

89.1 per cent of those aged over-80 have had one dose, while jabs have reached 85.1 per cent of residents between 75 and 79.

It came a week after Clare Watson, Accountable Officer of the NHS running Cheshire’s roll-out said she was ‘confident’ targets would be met.

The NHS Cheshire CCG representative said: “It's really good progress. Everyone is working incredibly hard but also they're incredibly committed.

“We have really challenging deadlines but we are confident with the modelling and work we are doing that we will hit those.

“This is all dependent on the availability of the vaccine, but we are on track.”

Although the NHS’ focus remains giving as many people their first doses, 13.7 per cent of over-80s have had both measures.

Just over four in ten Cheshire and Merseyside residents (40.4 per cent) aged 70-74 have got the opening portion of the immunisation.

On the same day, Cllr Corcoran added that work had now begun on vaccinating those under-70 in some areas of Cheshire East.

He said: “The vaccination programme is going well in Cheshire East. The target of vaccinating all over-70s, all clinically extremely vulnerable, and all frontline health and care workers by mid-February looks set to be met.
“Some areas have already moved on to vaccinating those under-70.”

Additionally, he urged residents to not contact the NHS or councils about when they might have their vaccine appointment, as well as warning to ‘watch out for frauds’.

Should we be worried?

Not immediately, but it’s worth re-doubling our hands-face-space efforts anyway just to be doubly sure.

If infection rates do climb, then the good news is that more elderley people will have some degree of protection against the virus.

The caveat to that of course is that not everyone will be at 100 per cent protection, and middle-aged people are then also at risk, so this will have real, dreadful consequences on some families if it does happen.

On the other hand, if those rates begin to keep falling, then we know that measures are working still and can be relied upon to steer us through the vaccine programme.

Regardless, the official line is still to stay at home unless you need to leave for an essential reason.